Latest NOAA forecast ensembles and ECMWF model runs favor a Miami high of 78-79°F on March 21, aligning with the 29.5% trader-implied probability amid climatological norms where March 21 averages 78.5°F historically. High uncertainty stems from model divergence on subtropical ridge intensity and sea breeze development, with GFS leaning warmer toward 80-81°F (19.5% odds) if ridging strengthens, while Euro trends cooler for 76-77°F (18.5%) under potential onshore flow or clouds. Lower outliers like 74-75°F (12%) hinge on frontal remnants, but minimal cold air mass limits sub-72°F chances below 14% combined, reflecting spring transition volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Miami on March 21?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 21?
78-79°F 30%
76-77°F 20%
80-81°F 20%
82-83°F 10%
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
3%
78-79°F 30%
76-77°F 20%
80-81°F 20%
82-83°F 10%
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA forecast ensembles and ECMWF model runs favor a Miami high of 78-79°F on March 21, aligning with the 29.5% trader-implied probability amid climatological norms where March 21 averages 78.5°F historically. High uncertainty stems from model divergence on subtropical ridge intensity and sea breeze development, with GFS leaning warmer toward 80-81°F (19.5% odds) if ridging strengthens, while Euro trends cooler for 76-77°F (18.5%) under potential onshore flow or clouds. Lower outliers like 74-75°F (12%) hinge on frontal remnants, but minimal cold air mass limits sub-72°F chances below 14% combined, reflecting spring transition volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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