Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 25°C high in Shenzhen on March 21, driven by converging numerical weather prediction models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project a daytime maximum of precisely 25°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Historical March data from the China Meteorological Administration shows average highs of 24-26°C in the region, aligning with current mild La Niña-influenced patterns and sea surface temperatures around 24°C in the South China Sea. This positioning is robust absent surprises like an abrupt high-pressure ridge enhancing solar insolation or model underestimation of urban heat island effects, which could realistically push temperatures to 26°C or higher if clear skies persist longer than forecast.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Shenzhen le 21 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Shenzhen le 21 mars ?
25°C 99.8%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C ou plus <1%
$189,098 Vol.
$189,098 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C ou plus
<1%
25°C 99.8%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C ou plus <1%
$189,098 Vol.
$189,098 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 25°C high in Shenzhen on March 21, driven by converging numerical weather prediction models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which project a daytime maximum of precisely 25°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. Historical March data from the China Meteorological Administration shows average highs of 24-26°C in the region, aligning with current mild La Niña-influenced patterns and sea surface temperatures around 24°C in the South China Sea. This positioning is robust absent surprises like an abrupt high-pressure ridge enhancing solar insolation or model underestimation of urban heat island effects, which could realistically push temperatures to 26°C or higher if clear skies persist longer than forecast.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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