Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mid-90s highs in Dallas on March 21, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs converging on 94-97°F amid a potent upper-level ridge over Texas fostering adiabatic warming and subsidence. The National Weather Service forecast aligns closely at 94°F, boosted by persistent southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture while suppressing clouds for maximal insolation. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: ECMWF's drier profile edges toward 96-97°F (19.5% odds), while GFS cloud tweaks favor 94-95°F (27.5% leading). Historical March norms (68°F average) underscore the anomalous heat dome, though microscale effects like urban heat island at DFW could nudge toward 98°F+ (17.5%), with 12z model updates pivotal for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Dallas on March 21?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 21?
94-95°F 28%
92-93°F 20%
96-97°F 20%
98°F or higher 16%
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
20%
94-95°F
28%
96-97°F
20%
98°F or higher
16%
94-95°F 28%
92-93°F 20%
96-97°F 20%
98°F or higher 16%
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
20%
94-95°F
28%
96-97°F
20%
98°F or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mid-90s highs in Dallas on March 21, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs converging on 94-97°F amid a potent upper-level ridge over Texas fostering adiabatic warming and subsidence. The National Weather Service forecast aligns closely at 94°F, boosted by persistent southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture while suppressing clouds for maximal insolation. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: ECMWF's drier profile edges toward 96-97°F (19.5% odds), while GFS cloud tweaks favor 94-95°F (27.5% leading). Historical March norms (68°F average) underscore the anomalous heat dome, though microscale effects like urban heat island at DFW could nudge toward 98°F+ (17.5%), with 12z model updates pivotal for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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