Trader sentiment for Seattle's highest temperature on March 21 hinges on the razor-thin split between 50-51°F (31.5% implied probability) and 48-49°F (29.0%), driven by NOAA's latest forecast projecting a high near 50°F under partly cloudy skies with light marine inflow. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF diverge by 1-2°F due to uncertainty in Puget Sound convergence zone clouds and weak high-pressure ridging, capping daytime heating after a cool morning. Historical March 21 averages hover at 52°F, but a recent Pacific cool anomaly—evident in 00Z runs—nudges odds lower, with traders eyeing 12Z updates for resolution-defining clarity on peak afternoon warmth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seattle on March 21?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 21?
50-51°F 32%
48-49°F 30%
52-53°F 14%
56-57°F 11%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
2%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
30%
50-51°F
32%
52-53°F
14%
54-55°F
9%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
2%
60°F or higher
2%
50-51°F 32%
48-49°F 30%
52-53°F 14%
56-57°F 11%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
2%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
30%
50-51°F
32%
52-53°F
14%
54-55°F
9%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
2%
60°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Seattle's highest temperature on March 21 hinges on the razor-thin split between 50-51°F (31.5% implied probability) and 48-49°F (29.0%), driven by NOAA's latest forecast projecting a high near 50°F under partly cloudy skies with light marine inflow. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF diverge by 1-2°F due to uncertainty in Puget Sound convergence zone clouds and weak high-pressure ridging, capping daytime heating after a cool morning. Historical March 21 averages hover at 52°F, but a recent Pacific cool anomaly—evident in 00Z runs—nudges odds lower, with traders eyeing 12Z updates for resolution-defining clarity on peak afternoon warmth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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