Met Office's latest short-range forecast pegs London's highest temperature on March 22 at 13°C in central areas like Heathrow and the city, fueling the market's 87% implied probability, while 14°C holds 14% on slight model spread. Cool northerly airflow under building high pressure, confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensembles, caps peaks amid typical early spring conditions—March historical maxima average 12.5°C with low variability. Recent data shows yesterday's 12°C high and stable overnight lows around 6°C, tightening uncertainty to ±1°C; this convergence sidelines tails like 15°C (1.5%) despite occasional sunny spells boosting minor upside risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Londres le 22 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Londres le 22 mars ?
13°C 88%
14°C 10%
15°C <1%
12°C <1%
$334,067 Vol.
$334,067 Vol.
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
88%
14°C
10%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C ou plus
<1%
13°C 88%
14°C 10%
15°C <1%
12°C <1%
$334,067 Vol.
$334,067 Vol.
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
88%
14°C
10%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 18, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Fenêtre de contestation
Final
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Met Office's latest short-range forecast pegs London's highest temperature on March 22 at 13°C in central areas like Heathrow and the city, fueling the market's 87% implied probability, while 14°C holds 14% on slight model spread. Cool northerly airflow under building high pressure, confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensembles, caps peaks amid typical early spring conditions—March historical maxima average 12.5°C with low variability. Recent data shows yesterday's 12°C high and stable overnight lows around 6°C, tightening uncertainty to ±1°C; this convergence sidelines tails like 15°C (1.5%) despite occasional sunny spells boosting minor upside risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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