Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Chengdu's March 26 high near 23-25°C, anchoring 24°C as trader favorite at 33% amid typical late-spring warming from southerly advection and low wind shear. Tight clustering with 17°C or below (25%) and 27°C or higher (25%) reflects model spread driven by cloud cover uncertainty—persistent stratus from recent Sichuan Basin moisture could cap peaks via reduced insolation, echoing 20% historical frequency of sub-18°C maxima post-rain, while clear skies and urban heat island effects enable outliers above 27°C per baseline March norms of 18-22°C. Traders eye 00Z model runs for resolution catalysts as diurnal heating amplifies small perturbations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
24°C 29%
23°C 18%
22°C 17%
25°C 17%
17°C or below
16%
18°C
12%
19°C
14%
20°C
16%
21°C
16%
22°C
17%
23°C
18%
24°C
29%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C or higher
17%
24°C 29%
23°C 18%
22°C 17%
25°C 17%
17°C or below
16%
18°C
12%
19°C
14%
20°C
16%
21°C
16%
22°C
17%
23°C
18%
24°C
29%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Chengdu's March 26 high near 23-25°C, anchoring 24°C as trader favorite at 33% amid typical late-spring warming from southerly advection and low wind shear. Tight clustering with 17°C or below (25%) and 27°C or higher (25%) reflects model spread driven by cloud cover uncertainty—persistent stratus from recent Sichuan Basin moisture could cap peaks via reduced insolation, echoing 20% historical frequency of sub-18°C maxima post-rain, while clear skies and urban heat island effects enable outliers above 27°C per baseline March norms of 18-22°C. Traders eye 00Z model runs for resolution catalysts as diurnal heating amplifies small perturbations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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