Latest ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF, including GFS and European runs updated through March 25, point to Houston's highest temperature on March 26 clustering in the mid-80s°F, driving trader consensus toward 82-83°F, 84-85°F, and 86-87°F at 17% each amid tight clustering. This reflects a ridge of high pressure over Texas amplifying solar heating and light winds, with minimal Gulf moisture suppressing clouds for peak afternoon highs. Differentiating factors include slight model divergences on boundary layer mixing and potential cirrus overcast—ECMWF leans warmer (86-89°F) versus cooler GFS outliers (78-81°F)—against a historical March 26 average of 76°F, though recent warm anomalies boost upside risk toward 90°F+. Traders eye the 2 PM CDT official observation from Houston's IAH airport as the resolution trigger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Houston on March 26?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 26?
73°F or below 17%
78-79°F 17%
80-81°F 17%
82-83°F 17%
73°F or below
17%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92°F or higher
17%
73°F or below 17%
78-79°F 17%
80-81°F 17%
82-83°F 17%
73°F or below
17%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
14%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92°F or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF, including GFS and European runs updated through March 25, point to Houston's highest temperature on March 26 clustering in the mid-80s°F, driving trader consensus toward 82-83°F, 84-85°F, and 86-87°F at 17% each amid tight clustering. This reflects a ridge of high pressure over Texas amplifying solar heating and light winds, with minimal Gulf moisture suppressing clouds for peak afternoon highs. Differentiating factors include slight model divergences on boundary layer mixing and potential cirrus overcast—ECMWF leans warmer (86-89°F) versus cooler GFS outliers (78-81°F)—against a historical March 26 average of 76°F, though recent warm anomalies boost upside risk toward 90°F+. Traders eye the 2 PM CDT official observation from Houston's IAH airport as the resolution trigger.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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