Trader sentiment on Madrid's highest temperature for March 26 reflects high uncertainty from divergent short-range weather models, with AEMET and ECMWF ensembles showing a spread between cooler northerly flows (favoring ≤15°C at 25.5%) and potential high-pressure ridges enabling ≥25°C warmth (also 25.5%). Historical data from AEMET indicates late-March maxima average 17-19°C, but recent GFS updates highlight a stalled frontal boundary introducing volatility—cooler outcomes tied to Atlantic low-pressure troughs, warmer to subtropical air advection. Peak probabilities cluster at 16-21°C (16.5-18%), driven by consensus daytime highs near 18°C under partly cloudy skies, with key resolution hinging on 00Z model runs tonight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
15°C or below 26%
16°C 23%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
15°C or below
26%
16°C
23%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
17%
22°C
7%
23°C
6%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
12%
15°C or below 26%
16°C 23%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
15°C or below
26%
16°C
23%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
17%
22°C
7%
23°C
6%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Madrid's highest temperature for March 26 reflects high uncertainty from divergent short-range weather models, with AEMET and ECMWF ensembles showing a spread between cooler northerly flows (favoring ≤15°C at 25.5%) and potential high-pressure ridges enabling ≥25°C warmth (also 25.5%). Historical data from AEMET indicates late-March maxima average 17-19°C, but recent GFS updates highlight a stalled frontal boundary introducing volatility—cooler outcomes tied to Atlantic low-pressure troughs, warmer to subtropical air advection. Peak probabilities cluster at 16-21°C (16.5-18%), driven by consensus daytime highs near 18°C under partly cloudy skies, with key resolution hinging on 00Z model runs tonight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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