Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a warm March 26 in Los Angeles, with 82-83°F leading at 21% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicating a robust upper-level ridge over Southern California fostering adiabatic warming and subsidence inversion aloft. This setup suppresses marine layer influence, allowing highs to spike amid light Santa Ana-like offshore flow, as seen in recent 00Z model runs. Differentiating factors include model spread: the 13.5% odds for 86°F+ hinge on Euro model outliers showing stronger ridging, while lower bins like 70-71°F (9%) reflect cooler Canadian ECMWF clusters or unexpected stratus persistence. Historical March averages hover near 72°F, but El Niño fade and positive temperature anomalies boost upside risk; watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
82-83°F 21%
86°F or higher 14%
67°F or below 9%
70-71°F 9%
67°F or below
9%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
14%
82-83°F 21%
86°F or higher 14%
67°F or below 9%
70-71°F 9%
67°F or below
9%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
9%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a warm March 26 in Los Angeles, with 82-83°F leading at 21% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicating a robust upper-level ridge over Southern California fostering adiabatic warming and subsidence inversion aloft. This setup suppresses marine layer influence, allowing highs to spike amid light Santa Ana-like offshore flow, as seen in recent 00Z model runs. Differentiating factors include model spread: the 13.5% odds for 86°F+ hinge on Euro model outliers showing stronger ridging, while lower bins like 70-71°F (9%) reflect cooler Canadian ECMWF clusters or unexpected stratus persistence. Historical March averages hover near 72°F, but El Niño fade and positive temperature anomalies boost upside risk; watch 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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