The market's strong consensus on a 14°C high in Seoul on March 23, at 31% implied probability, is driven by the Korean Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 13-15°C under partly cloudy skies and mild southerly winds displacing recent cold air. Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty, with probabilities dispersed across 13-16°C due to model divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs—northerly cold fronts could drop temps to 12°C or below (14.6% combined), while persistent high pressure might push 16°C+ (20.2%). Historical March 23 averages hover at 12°C, but this year's positive temperature anomalies from weakened Siberian highs amplify upside risk. Watch KMA's 1200 UTC update for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Séoul le 23 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Séoul le 23 mars ?
16°C ou plus 33.9%
14°C 27%
15°C 23%
13°C 15%
$50,468 Vol.
$50,468 Vol.
6°C ou moins
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
6%
13°C
15%
14°C
27%
15°C
23%
16°C ou plus
28%
16°C ou plus 33.9%
14°C 27%
15°C 23%
13°C 15%
$50,468 Vol.
$50,468 Vol.
6°C ou moins
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
6%
13°C
15%
14°C
27%
15°C
23%
16°C ou plus
28%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's strong consensus on a 14°C high in Seoul on March 23, at 31% implied probability, is driven by the Korean Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 13-15°C under partly cloudy skies and mild southerly winds displacing recent cold air. Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty, with probabilities dispersed across 13-16°C due to model divergences in ECMWF and GFS runs—northerly cold fronts could drop temps to 12°C or below (14.6% combined), while persistent high pressure might push 16°C+ (20.2%). Historical March 23 averages hover at 12°C, but this year's positive temperature anomalies from weakened Siberian highs amplify upside risk. Watch KMA's 1200 UTC update for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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