Trader sentiment on Wellington's highest temperature on March 26 leans toward 20°C or higher at 31% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast indicating a daytime high near 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds favoring mild conditions. Historical March averages hover around 19.5°C, but current ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS show a spread of 17-22°C due to uncertainty in a potential southerly front's timing. Key variables include cloud cover reducing solar insolation for lower outcomes like 17-18°C, persistent northerlies boosting 20+°C chances, and stronger winds or overnight cooling capping at 15-16°C; the broad distribution reflects model divergence ahead of tomorrow's update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 26?
20°C or higher 50%
19°C 24%
18°C 18%
17°C 17%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
6%
13°C
7%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
24%
20°C or higher
36%
20°C or higher 50%
19°C 24%
18°C 18%
17°C 17%
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
6%
13°C
7%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
24%
20°C or higher
36%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Wellington's highest temperature on March 26 leans toward 20°C or higher at 31% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast indicating a daytime high near 21°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds favoring mild conditions. Historical March averages hover around 19.5°C, but current ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS show a spread of 17-22°C due to uncertainty in a potential southerly front's timing. Key variables include cloud cover reducing solar insolation for lower outcomes like 17-18°C, persistent northerlies boosting 20+°C chances, and stronger winds or overnight cooling capping at 15-16°C; the broad distribution reflects model divergence ahead of tomorrow's update.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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