Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Taipei high of 24°C (34% implied probability) or 25°C (28%), driven by the latest Central Weather Administration forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS converging on 24-25°C amid a weakening subtropical high allowing cooler northeasterly flows. This differentiates from 26°C (21%) odds, as increased cloud cover and light showers—tied to an approaching frontal boundary—cap afternoon heating, unlike clearer scenarios pushing toward 27°C+. Late March climatology averages 24°C highs, with current mild post-El Niño conditions adding uncertainty; diurnal maxima hinge on solar insolation, with official observations resolving post-sunset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
24°C 34%
25°C 27%
26°C 22%
23°C 10%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
34%
25°C
27%
26°C
22%
27°C or higher
7%
24°C 34%
25°C 27%
26°C 22%
23°C 10%
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
34%
25°C
27%
26°C
22%
27°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Taipei high of 24°C (34% implied probability) or 25°C (28%), driven by the latest Central Weather Administration forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS converging on 24-25°C amid a weakening subtropical high allowing cooler northeasterly flows. This differentiates from 26°C (21%) odds, as increased cloud cover and light showers—tied to an approaching frontal boundary—cap afternoon heating, unlike clearer scenarios pushing toward 27°C+. Late March climatology averages 24°C highs, with current mild post-El Niño conditions adding uncertainty; diurnal maxima hinge on solar insolation, with official observations resolving post-sunset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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