Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 29, with implied probabilities clustered around 28–30°C (21–22%) due to consistent ensemble outputs from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS and ECMWF. Recent SMN updates show a high pressure ridge dominating, favoring warm conditions with light southerly winds limiting cooling sea breezes, but diurnal cloud variability and urban heat island effects in the city create differentiation—favoring 29°C slightly amid low-volatility late-autumn patterns. Historical March maxima average 27–29°C; new hourly observations and afternoon soundings expected to refine trader positioning before resolution based on official SMN station data at Ezeiza.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 29?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 29?
29°C 22%
28°C 22%
30°C 21%
27°C 16%
23°C or below
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
8%
27°C
16%
28°C
22%
29°C
22%
30°C
21%
31°C
15%
32°C
14%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 22%
28°C 22%
30°C 21%
27°C 16%
23°C or below
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
8%
27°C
16%
28°C
22%
29°C
22%
30°C
21%
31°C
15%
32°C
14%
33°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 29, with implied probabilities clustered around 28–30°C (21–22%) due to consistent ensemble outputs from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like GFS and ECMWF. Recent SMN updates show a high pressure ridge dominating, favoring warm conditions with light southerly winds limiting cooling sea breezes, but diurnal cloud variability and urban heat island effects in the city create differentiation—favoring 29°C slightly amid low-volatility late-autumn patterns. Historical March maxima average 27–29°C; new hourly observations and afternoon soundings expected to refine trader positioning before resolution based on official SMN station data at Ezeiza.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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