Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 28 at 27-29°C, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and advection of subtropical air masses, boosting trader odds to 65.5% for 27°C or higher. Recent observations confirm the trend, with March 26 peaking at 29°C and March 27 forecasts holding near 28°C amid minimal sea breeze influence, per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional data. The 20% implied probability for exactly 26°C reflects minor model spread and potential afternoon cloud cover, while lower outcomes carry slim odds given historical late-March heatwave precedents exceeding 27°C over 60% of similar setups. Upcoming hourly updates from local stations could refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 28?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 28?
27°C or higher 66%
26°C 18%
25°C 5.7%
24°C 5%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
5%
25°C
6%
26°C
20%
27°C or higher
66%
27°C or higher 66%
26°C 18%
25°C 5.7%
24°C 5%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
4%
24°C
5%
25°C
6%
26°C
20%
27°C or higher
66%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models project Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 28 at 27-29°C, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and advection of subtropical air masses, boosting trader odds to 65.5% for 27°C or higher. Recent observations confirm the trend, with March 26 peaking at 29°C and March 27 forecasts holding near 28°C amid minimal sea breeze influence, per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional data. The 20% implied probability for exactly 26°C reflects minor model spread and potential afternoon cloud cover, while lower outcomes carry slim odds given historical late-March heatwave precedents exceeding 27°C over 60% of similar setups. Upcoming hourly updates from local stations could refine these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes