Trader sentiment on Los Angeles' highest temperature March 29 leans toward 84°F or higher at 36.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble models projecting a strong high-pressure ridge over Southern California, fostering adiabatic warming from downslope Santa Ana-like winds and clear skies. Historical March averages hover around 72°F, but low soil moisture from ongoing drought amplifies heat potential, with precedents like 91°F records. Recent 12Z model runs on March 27 boosted hot-end odds, shifting from prior 70s-80s clustering, though 80-83°F bins (36.5% combined) reflect ensemble spread and nocturnal cooling uncertainty; monitor NWS point forecast update by evening for resolution cues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 29?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 29?
84°F or higher 33%
80-81°F 21%
72-73°F 17%
74-75°F 17%
65°F or below
2%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
16%
84°F or higher
33%
84°F or higher 33%
80-81°F 21%
72-73°F 17%
74-75°F 17%
65°F or below
2%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
16%
84°F or higher
33%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Los Angeles' highest temperature March 29 leans toward 84°F or higher at 36.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System and ECMWF ensemble models projecting a strong high-pressure ridge over Southern California, fostering adiabatic warming from downslope Santa Ana-like winds and clear skies. Historical March averages hover around 72°F, but low soil moisture from ongoing drought amplifies heat potential, with precedents like 91°F records. Recent 12Z model runs on March 27 boosted hot-end odds, shifting from prior 70s-80s clustering, though 80-83°F bins (36.5% combined) reflect ensemble spread and nocturnal cooling uncertainty; monitor NWS point forecast update by evening for resolution cues.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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