Trader consensus heavily favors 11°C and 12°C for Ankara's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 10.5–12.5°C amid a transitional weather pattern with lingering cold air from the north and increasing southerly flow. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, show a slight upward trend in maximum temperatures due to high-pressure ridging, but persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks differentiate the razor-thin 11–12°C outcomes by capping solar heating—ECMWF clusters at 11.8°C while GFS implies 11.2°C. Historical late-March data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates average highs near 12°C with a 2°C standard deviation, underscoring the tight model spread fueling market tension.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on March 25?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 25?
12°C 32%
11°C 30%
13°C 15%
10°C 12%
6°C or below
4%
7°C
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
10%
10°C
12%
11°C
30%
12°C
32%
13°C
15%
14°C
8%
15°C
4%
16°C or higher
2%
12°C 32%
11°C 30%
13°C 15%
10°C 12%
6°C or below
4%
7°C
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
10%
10°C
12%
11°C
30%
12°C
32%
13°C
15%
14°C
8%
15°C
4%
16°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 11°C and 12°C for Ankara's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 10.5–12.5°C amid a transitional weather pattern with lingering cold air from the north and increasing southerly flow. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, show a slight upward trend in maximum temperatures due to high-pressure ridging, but persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks differentiate the razor-thin 11–12°C outcomes by capping solar heating—ECMWF clusters at 11.8°C while GFS implies 11.2°C. Historical late-March data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates average highs near 12°C with a 2°C standard deviation, underscoring the tight model spread fueling market tension.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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