Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 11°C (37.5% implied probability) for Ankara on March 23, driven by the latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ECMWF models projecting daytime maxima in the 10-12°C range amid persistent cool northerly airflow from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. Recent developments include a slight warming trend in GFS updates overnight, boosting odds for 12°C (24.5%) while capping 14°C+ at 3.2%, as cloud cover and light precipitation suppress extremes. Historical March data from Ankara's Esenboğa station shows average highs of 11.5°C, aligning with these market-implied odds, though resolution hinges on official MGM observations at 0900 UTC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
11°C 38%
12°C 25%
10°C 23%
9°C 7%
$41,792 Vol.
$41,792 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
23%
11°C
38%
12°C
25%
13°C
4%
14°C or higher
4%
11°C 38%
12°C 25%
10°C 23%
9°C 7%
$41,792 Vol.
$41,792 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
23%
11°C
38%
12°C
25%
13°C
4%
14°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 11°C (37.5% implied probability) for Ankara on March 23, driven by the latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ECMWF models projecting daytime maxima in the 10-12°C range amid persistent cool northerly airflow from a low-pressure system over the Black Sea. Recent developments include a slight warming trend in GFS updates overnight, boosting odds for 12°C (24.5%) while capping 14°C+ at 3.2%, as cloud cover and light precipitation suppress extremes. Historical March data from Ankara's Esenboğa station shows average highs of 11.5°C, aligning with these market-implied odds, though resolution hinges on official MGM observations at 0900 UTC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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