Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Beijing high of 25°C at 22.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mid-20s Celsius peaks for March 25, amid persistent southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the south. This edges out 24°C (21.5%) and 26°C (19.5%) due to model spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover—thicker stratus could cap peaks at 24°C, while clearer skies boost to 26°C via enhanced solar insolation. Historical March norms around 12-15°C underscore the anomaly from high-pressure ridging, but urban heat island effects amplify city readings at the official Beijing Capital Airport station, with CMA updates tomorrow potentially shifting odds further.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
25°C 23%
24°C 22%
23°C 17%
22°C 16%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
12%
21°C
16%
22°C
16%
23°C
17%
24°C
22%
25°C
23%
26°C
20%
27°C
13%
28°C
15%
29°C or higher
10%
25°C 23%
24°C 22%
23°C 17%
22°C 16%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
12%
21°C
16%
22°C
16%
23°C
17%
24°C
22%
25°C
23%
26°C
20%
27°C
13%
28°C
15%
29°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Beijing high of 25°C at 22.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mid-20s Celsius peaks for March 25, amid persistent southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the south. This edges out 24°C (21.5%) and 26°C (19.5%) due to model spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover—thicker stratus could cap peaks at 24°C, while clearer skies boost to 26°C via enhanced solar insolation. Historical March norms around 12-15°C underscore the anomaly from high-pressure ridging, but urban heat island effects amplify city readings at the official Beijing Capital Airport station, with CMA updates tomorrow potentially shifting odds further.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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