Current forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29 clustering tightly around 12–14°C, reflecting trader consensus in the leading market-implied probabilities and underscoring short-term uncertainty in daily maxima. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from an approaching weak frontal system, southerly winds advecting mild Atlantic air (boosting potential to 14°C or higher in clearer scenarios), versus cooler overcast conditions capping at 12°C, with recent 12Z model runs slightly favoring 13°C amid a positive temperature anomaly above March climatological norms of 9–11°C. New 00Z updates expected within hours could refine this spread before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
13°C 31%
14°C 22%
12°C 18%
15°C 13%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
7%
9°C
7%
10°C
10%
11°C
13%
12°C
20%
13°C
25%
14°C
22%
15°C
13%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
12%
13°C 31%
14°C 22%
12°C 18%
15°C 13%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
7%
9°C
7%
10°C
10%
11°C
13%
12°C
20%
13°C
25%
14°C
22%
15°C
13%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29 clustering tightly around 12–14°C, reflecting trader consensus in the leading market-implied probabilities and underscoring short-term uncertainty in daily maxima. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from an approaching weak frontal system, southerly winds advecting mild Atlantic air (boosting potential to 14°C or higher in clearer scenarios), versus cooler overcast conditions capping at 12°C, with recent 12Z model runs slightly favoring 13°C amid a positive temperature anomaly above March climatological norms of 9–11°C. New 00Z updates expected within hours could refine this spread before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes