Traders overwhelmingly back 5-6 inches of precipitation in Seattle for March at 89.3% implied probability, reflecting NOAA and National Weather Service data showing over 4.2 inches already accumulated by mid-month from repeated atmospheric rivers fueled by a transitioning El Niño pattern. Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF consensus project an additional 0.8-1.5 inches through month's end, aligning totals near climatological wetter analogs (historical March average 3.0 inches, but 5+ inches in 20% of recent wet phases). Low odds on extremes stem from fading storm intensity signals and drying trends in steering patterns; watch NWS Seattle's March 20-25 outlooks for potential shifts as Pacific high pressure builds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPrécipitations à Seattle en mars ?
Précipitations à Seattle en mars ?
5-6 po 88.2%
15-18 cm 7.8%
>8" 1.8%
4-5" <1%
$275,139 Vol.
$275,139 Vol.
<3"
<1%
3-4"
<1%
4-5"
<1%
5-6 po
88%
15-18 cm
8%
7-8 po
<1%
>8"
2%
5-6 po 88.2%
15-18 cm 7.8%
>8" 1.8%
4-5" <1%
$275,139 Vol.
$275,139 Vol.
<3"
<1%
3-4"
<1%
4-5"
<1%
5-6 po
88%
15-18 cm
8%
7-8 po
<1%
>8"
2%
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back 5-6 inches of precipitation in Seattle for March at 89.3% implied probability, reflecting NOAA and National Weather Service data showing over 4.2 inches already accumulated by mid-month from repeated atmospheric rivers fueled by a transitioning El Niño pattern. Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF consensus project an additional 0.8-1.5 inches through month's end, aligning totals near climatological wetter analogs (historical March average 3.0 inches, but 5+ inches in 20% of recent wet phases). Low odds on extremes stem from fading storm intensity signals and drying trends in steering patterns; watch NWS Seattle's March 20-25 outlooks for potential shifts as Pacific high pressure builds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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