Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high temperature of 22°C at 29.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 23°C (22%) and 21°C or below (19%), driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast pinpointing 22-23°C amid a passing cool front. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around this range, with northeasterly winds and increased cloud cover suppressing highs from historical late-March averages near 24°C. Recent observations confirm moderating diurnal swings, but short-range uncertainty persists due to frontal boundary positioning, differentiating the slim edges for 22°C over cooler outliers via precise boundary layer thermodynamics. Key watch: CWA's 6-hourly updates through March 27.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Taipei on March 27?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 27?
22°C 22%
23°C 19%
21°C or below 18%
24°C 15%
$33,042 Vol.
$33,042 Vol.
21°C or below
26%
22°C
28%
23°C
19%
24°C
15%
25°C
12%
26°C
5%
27°C
3%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
1%
22°C 22%
23°C 19%
21°C or below 18%
24°C 15%
$33,042 Vol.
$33,042 Vol.
21°C or below
26%
22°C
28%
23°C
19%
24°C
15%
25°C
12%
26°C
5%
27°C
3%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high temperature of 22°C at 29.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 23°C (22%) and 21°C or below (19%), driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast pinpointing 22-23°C amid a passing cool front. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show tight clustering around this range, with northeasterly winds and increased cloud cover suppressing highs from historical late-March averages near 24°C. Recent observations confirm moderating diurnal swings, but short-range uncertainty persists due to frontal boundary positioning, differentiating the slim edges for 22°C over cooler outliers via precise boundary layer thermodynamics. Key watch: CWA's 6-hourly updates through March 27.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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