Trader consensus heavily favors a Wellington high of 21°C on March 23, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting peaks around 21°C amid northwesterly winds carrying warm föhn effects typical of the region's maritime climate. March historical averages hover at 20.1°C, but ongoing El Niño conditions have boosted recent autumn warmth, with March 22's observed 20°C aligning closely. Ensemble model outputs from NIWA and global datasets like ECMWF converge on 20-22°C, explaining the 42.5% implied probability for 21°C versus 27% for 22°C and 20.5% for 20°C; lower odds for extremes reflect stable synoptic patterns and minimal convective risk, positioning deviations as low-probability outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on March 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 23?
21°C 43%
22°C 27%
20°C 21%
23°C or higher 7.4%
$33,705 Vol.
$33,705 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
4%
20°C
21%
21°C
43%
22°C
27%
23°C or higher
7%
21°C 43%
22°C 27%
20°C 21%
23°C or higher 7.4%
$33,705 Vol.
$33,705 Vol.
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
4%
20°C
21%
21°C
43%
22°C
27%
23°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Wellington high of 21°C on March 23, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting peaks around 21°C amid northwesterly winds carrying warm föhn effects typical of the region's maritime climate. March historical averages hover at 20.1°C, but ongoing El Niño conditions have boosted recent autumn warmth, with March 22's observed 20°C aligning closely. Ensemble model outputs from NIWA and global datasets like ECMWF converge on 20-22°C, explaining the 42.5% implied probability for 21°C versus 27% for 22°C and 20.5% for 20°C; lower odds for extremes reflect stable synoptic patterns and minimal convective risk, positioning deviations as low-probability outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes