Latest ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Tokyo high temperature of 14-15°C on March 23, with 15°C leading at 29.5% implied probability amid tight clustering around 13-16°C. These odds reflect seasonal norms for late March—average highs near 13.5°C—boosted slightly by urban heat island effects and anticipated mild southerly flows, but tempered by typical jet stream variability introducing 2-3°C model spread. Recent GFS updates show no anomalous warmth, differentiating lower outcomes (13-14°C) via potential cool continental air intrusions from higher ones (16°C+), as cherry blossom-season stability favors moderation over extremes. Traders eye JMA's next forecast refresh for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 23?
15°C 29%
16°C 26%
14°C 24%
17°C 17%
10 °C ou moins
1%
11°C
5%
12°C
1%
13°C
18%
14°C
24%
15°C
29%
16°C
26%
17°C
17%
18°C
4%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
2%
15°C 29%
16°C 26%
14°C 24%
17°C 17%
10 °C ou moins
1%
11°C
5%
12°C
1%
13°C
18%
14°C
24%
15°C
29%
16°C
26%
17°C
17%
18°C
4%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Tokyo high temperature of 14-15°C on March 23, with 15°C leading at 29.5% implied probability amid tight clustering around 13-16°C. These odds reflect seasonal norms for late March—average highs near 13.5°C—boosted slightly by urban heat island effects and anticipated mild southerly flows, but tempered by typical jet stream variability introducing 2-3°C model spread. Recent GFS updates show no anomalous warmth, differentiating lower outcomes (13-14°C) via potential cool continental air intrusions from higher ones (16°C+), as cherry blossom-season stability favors moderation over extremes. Traders eye JMA's next forecast refresh for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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