Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28°C and 29°C for Sao Paulo's March 23 high, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 28.5–29.2°C amid persistent summer warmth, with INMET models showing peak hourly temperatures straddling the threshold due to urban heat island effects amplifying midday sun. Differentiating factors include moderating sea breezes from the Atlantic, potentially capping at 28°C via increased humidity and cloudiness (27–30% cover per satellite data), versus drier outflow pushing 29°C or 30°C; historical March highs average 28.1°C, but recent days' 29.4°C precedent and low wind shear favor the upper end, explaining the razor-thin 31.5% vs. 29.5% split.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
29°C 32%
28°C 30%
27°C 16.6%
30°C 16%
$14,121 Vol.
$14,121 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
17%
28°C
30%
29°C
32%
30°C
16%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
29°C 32%
28°C 30%
27°C 16.6%
30°C 16%
$14,121 Vol.
$14,121 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
17%
28°C
30%
29°C
32%
30°C
16%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28°C and 29°C for Sao Paulo's March 23 high, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 28.5–29.2°C amid persistent summer warmth, with INMET models showing peak hourly temperatures straddling the threshold due to urban heat island effects amplifying midday sun. Differentiating factors include moderating sea breezes from the Atlantic, potentially capping at 28°C via increased humidity and cloudiness (27–30% cover per satellite data), versus drier outflow pushing 29°C or 30°C; historical March highs average 28.1°C, but recent days' 29.4°C precedent and low wind shear favor the upper end, explaining the razor-thin 31.5% vs. 29.5% split.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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