Trader consensus heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes from March 23-29 at 51.5% implied probability, reflecting global seismicity's Poisson-distributed nature with a historical weekly average of roughly 0.4 such events per USGS earthquake catalogs. This baseline, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter law, positions one quake at 32% as the next likely outcome, aligning with typical randomness absent triggering factors. Recent USGS data shows subdued activity—no major aftershock sequences from February's M7.4 Indonesia event or tectonic swarms—keeping probabilities low for multiples; monitoring through NOAA and international networks reveals no precursors elevating risks into the period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?
0 52%
1 31%
2 12%
3 2.8%
$36,753 Vol.
$36,753 Vol.
0
52%
1
31%
2
12%
3
3%
4
2%
5
<1%
>5
1%
0 52%
1 31%
2 12%
3 2.8%
$36,753 Vol.
$36,753 Vol.
0
52%
1
31%
2
12%
3
3%
4
2%
5
<1%
>5
1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 1:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes from March 23-29 at 51.5% implied probability, reflecting global seismicity's Poisson-distributed nature with a historical weekly average of roughly 0.4 such events per USGS earthquake catalogs. This baseline, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter law, positions one quake at 32% as the next likely outcome, aligning with typical randomness absent triggering factors. Recent USGS data shows subdued activity—no major aftershock sequences from February's M7.4 Indonesia event or tectonic swarms—keeping probabilities low for multiples; monitoring through NOAA and international networks reveals no precursors elevating risks into the period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes