Trader consensus favoring "No" at 61% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of Category 4 hurricane landfalls in the continental U.S.—averaging about 0.36 per year from 2000–2025 per NOAA records—with the most recent being Hurricane Helene in Florida in 2024. The 2025 Atlantic season, despite producing intense storms like record-setting Hurricane Melissa, saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, reinforcing low-impact sentiment. Early 2026 outlooks from AccuWeather project 11–16 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 2–4 majors near historical averages, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center flags a 62% chance of El Niño emerging by June–August, boosting wind shear that suppresses major hurricane formation. Warm sea surface temperatures pose intensification risks, though steering currents will determine landfalls; watch CSU's April 9 outlook and NOAA's May forecast for updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
$305,124 Vol.
$305,124 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$305,124 Vol.
$305,124 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 61% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of Category 4 hurricane landfalls in the continental U.S.—averaging about 0.36 per year from 2000–2025 per NOAA records—with the most recent being Hurricane Helene in Florida in 2024. The 2025 Atlantic season, despite producing intense storms like record-setting Hurricane Melissa, saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, reinforcing low-impact sentiment. Early 2026 outlooks from AccuWeather project 11–16 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 2–4 majors near historical averages, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center flags a 62% chance of El Niño emerging by June–August, boosting wind shear that suppresses major hurricane formation. Warm sea surface temperatures pose intensification risks, though steering currents will determine landfalls; watch CSU's April 9 outlook and NOAA's May forecast for updates.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$305,124Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 61% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of Category 4 hurricane landfalls in the continental U.S.—averaging about 0.36 per year from 2000–2025 per NOAA records—with the most recent being Hurricane Helene in Florida in 2024. The 2025 Atlantic season, despite producing intense storms like record-setting Hurricane Melissa, saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, reinforcing low-impact sentiment. Early 2026 outlooks from AccuWeather project 11–16 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 2–4 majors near historical averages, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center flags a 62% chance of El Niño emerging by June–August, boosting wind shear that suppresses major hurricane formation. Warm sea surface temperatures pose intensification risks, though steering currents will determine landfalls; watch CSU's April 9 outlook and NOAA's May forecast for updates.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$305,124Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 61% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of Category 4 hurricane landfalls in the continental U.S.—averaging about 0.36 per year from 2000–2025 per NOAA records—with the most recent being Hurricane Helene in Florida in 2024. The 2025 Atlantic season, despite producing intense storms like record-setting Hurricane Melissa, saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015, reinforcing low-impact sentiment. Early 2026 outlooks from AccuWeather project 11–16 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 2–4 majors near historical averages, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center flags a 62% chance of El Niño emerging by June–August, boosting wind shear that suppresses major hurricane formation. Warm sea surface temperatures pose intensification risks, though steering currents will determine landfalls; watch CSU's April 9 outlook and NOAA's May forecast for updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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