Trader consensus implies an 89% probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events—none recorded since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast—and the lack of precursory signals in current global monitoring data. USGS Volcano Observatory notices and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports show no caldera inflation, elevated seismicity, or massive SO2 emissions indicative of large magma reservoirs mobilizing; recent weeks' unrest at Campi Flegrei, Popocatépetl, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula remains confined to VEI 1-3 levels. Historical frequency averages one VEI ≥6 every 10-50 years, but without emerging threats, traders anchor on baseline low risk amid inherent forecasting uncertainties, with continuous seismic and satellite surveillance providing key updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÉruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Éruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Oui
$37,695 Vol.
$37,695 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Oui
$37,695 Vol.
$37,695 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus implies an 89% probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events—none recorded since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast—and the lack of precursory signals in current global monitoring data. USGS Volcano Observatory notices and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports show no caldera inflation, elevated seismicity, or massive SO2 emissions indicative of large magma reservoirs mobilizing; recent weeks' unrest at Campi Flegrei, Popocatépetl, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula remains confined to VEI 1-3 levels. Historical frequency averages one VEI ≥6 every 10-50 years, but without emerging threats, traders anchor on baseline low risk amid inherent forecasting uncertainties, with continuous seismic and satellite surveillance providing key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$37,695Date de fin
Mar 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus implies an 89% probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events—none recorded since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast—and the lack of precursory signals in current global monitoring data. USGS Volcano Observatory notices and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports show no caldera inflation, elevated seismicity, or massive SO2 emissions indicative of large magma reservoirs mobilizing; recent weeks' unrest at Campi Flegrei, Popocatépetl, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula remains confined to VEI 1-3 levels. Historical frequency averages one VEI ≥6 every 10-50 years, but without emerging threats, traders anchor on baseline low risk amid inherent forecasting uncertainties, with continuous seismic and satellite surveillance providing key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$37,695Date de fin
Mar 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 89% probability of no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events—none recorded since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 VEI 6 blast—and the lack of precursory signals in current global monitoring data. USGS Volcano Observatory notices and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports show no caldera inflation, elevated seismicity, or massive SO2 emissions indicative of large magma reservoirs mobilizing; recent weeks' unrest at Campi Flegrei, Popocatépetl, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula remains confined to VEI 1-3 levels. Historical frequency averages one VEI ≥6 every 10-50 years, but without emerging threats, traders anchor on baseline low risk amid inherent forecasting uncertainties, with continuous seismic and satellite surveillance providing key updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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