The Polymarket-implied 89% probability of no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, with only one confirmed instance—Mount Pinatubo in 1991—since Novarupta's 1912 blast, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current USGS monitoring of global hotspots like Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula shows elevated unrest at some sites but no seismic, deformation, or gas emission precursors indicative of Plinian-scale (VEI ≥6) activity, which requires massive magma accumulation over decades or centuries. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline low frequency—roughly one per 50–100 years—bolstered by no significant developments in the past 30 days. Weekly updates from USGS and international observatories could signal shifts if unexpected inflation or swarm seismicity emerges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÉruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Éruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Oui
$37,668 Vol.
$37,668 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
Oui
$37,668 Vol.
$37,668 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The Polymarket-implied 89% probability of no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, with only one confirmed instance—Mount Pinatubo in 1991—since Novarupta's 1912 blast, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current USGS monitoring of global hotspots like Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula shows elevated unrest at some sites but no seismic, deformation, or gas emission precursors indicative of Plinian-scale (VEI ≥6) activity, which requires massive magma accumulation over decades or centuries. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline low frequency—roughly one per 50–100 years—bolstered by no significant developments in the past 30 days. Weekly updates from USGS and international observatories could signal shifts if unexpected inflation or swarm seismicity emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$37,668Date de fin
Mar 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The Polymarket-implied 89% probability of no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, with only one confirmed instance—Mount Pinatubo in 1991—since Novarupta's 1912 blast, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current USGS monitoring of global hotspots like Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula shows elevated unrest at some sites but no seismic, deformation, or gas emission precursors indicative of Plinian-scale (VEI ≥6) activity, which requires massive magma accumulation over decades or centuries. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline low frequency—roughly one per 50–100 years—bolstered by no significant developments in the past 30 days. Weekly updates from USGS and international observatories could signal shifts if unexpected inflation or swarm seismicity emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$37,668Date de fin
Mar 31, 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Polymarket-implied 89% probability of no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 reflects the extreme rarity of such events, with only one confirmed instance—Mount Pinatubo in 1991—since Novarupta's 1912 blast, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current USGS monitoring of global hotspots like Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, and Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula shows elevated unrest at some sites but no seismic, deformation, or gas emission precursors indicative of Plinian-scale (VEI ≥6) activity, which requires massive magma accumulation over decades or centuries. Trader consensus aligns with this baseline low frequency—roughly one per 50–100 years—bolstered by no significant developments in the past 30 days. Weekly updates from USGS and international observatories could signal shifts if unexpected inflation or swarm seismicity emerges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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