Preliminary datasets from NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, and Berkeley Earth converge on a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline for April 2026 according to the NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driving the 91% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment. This positioning stems from persistent elevated sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, tempering extremes seen in April 2024's record 1.58°C during El Niño, while underlying greenhouse gas forcing sustains above-average warmth relative to historical April analogs. Realistic challenges include typical ±0.03°C revisions from late-arriving station data upon NASA's mid-May final release, potentially shifting to adjacent bins if borderline, though model ensembles support stability absent unforeseen aerosol influences.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAvril 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Avril 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
1,15–1,19 ºC 91%
1,10–1,14 ºC 4.0%
1,20–1,24 ºC 3.3%
<1,10ºC <1%
$316,836 Vol.
$316,836 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<1,10ºC
1%
1,10–1,14 ºC
4%
1,15–1,19 ºC
91%
1,20–1,24 ºC
3%
1,25–1,29 ºC
1%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19 ºC 91%
1,10–1,14 ºC 4.0%
1,20–1,24 ºC 3.3%
<1,10ºC <1%
$316,836 Vol.
$316,836 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<1,10ºC
$54,164 Vol.
1%
1,10–1,14 ºC
$60,507 Vol.
4%
1,15–1,19 ºC
$45,130 Vol.
91%
1,20–1,24 ºC
$60,161 Vol.
3%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$55,269 Vol.
1%
>1,29ºC
$41,605 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary datasets from NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, and Berkeley Earth converge on a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline for April 2026 according to the NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driving the 91% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment. This positioning stems from persistent elevated sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, tempering extremes seen in April 2024's record 1.58°C during El Niño, while underlying greenhouse gas forcing sustains above-average warmth relative to historical April analogs. Realistic challenges include typical ±0.03°C revisions from late-arriving station data upon NASA's mid-May final release, potentially shifting to adjacent bins if borderline, though model ensembles support stability absent unforeseen aerosol influences.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$316,836Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary datasets from NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, and Berkeley Earth converge on a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline for April 2026 according to the NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driving the 91% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment. This positioning stems from persistent elevated sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, tempering extremes seen in April 2024's record 1.58°C during El Niño, while underlying greenhouse gas forcing sustains above-average warmth relative to historical April analogs. Realistic challenges include typical ±0.03°C revisions from late-arriving station data upon NASA's mid-May final release, potentially shifting to adjacent bins if borderline, though model ensembles support stability absent unforeseen aerosol influences.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$316,836Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary datasets from NOAA, Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, and Berkeley Earth converge on a global surface temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline for April 2026 according to the NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, driving the 91% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment. This positioning stems from persistent elevated sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific amid the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, tempering extremes seen in April 2024's record 1.58°C during El Niño, while underlying greenhouse gas forcing sustains above-average warmth relative to historical April analogs. Realistic challenges include typical ±0.03°C revisions from late-arriving station data upon NASA's mid-May final release, potentially shifting to adjacent bins if borderline, though model ensembles support stability absent unforeseen aerosol influences.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes