The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability for May–July 2026 and WMO models showing rapid sea-surface temperature rise toward +1.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region, is the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range. This developing warm phase overlays the long-term anthropogenic trend, producing near-global above-normal land temperatures in multi-model forecasts while May remains within the seasonal window before peak El Niño amplification. Recent April 2026 observations of 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 baseline and 2025 annual averages near 1.19°C provide the reference trajectory, tempered by the spring predictability barrier and lingering neutral-to-weak La Niña influences early in the year. New monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities as the event evolves.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 21%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.1%
$74,134 Vol.
$74,134 Vol.
10 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
21%
1.10–1.14ºC
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 21%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.1%
$74,134 Vol.
$74,134 Vol.
10 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,465 Vol.
21%
1.10–1.14ºC
$7,321 Vol.
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
$12,528 Vol.
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
$9,749 Vol.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$7,696 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$9,375 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability for May–July 2026 and WMO models showing rapid sea-surface temperature rise toward +1.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region, is the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range. This developing warm phase overlays the long-term anthropogenic trend, producing near-global above-normal land temperatures in multi-model forecasts while May remains within the seasonal window before peak El Niño amplification. Recent April 2026 observations of 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 baseline and 2025 annual averages near 1.19°C provide the reference trajectory, tempered by the spring predictability barrier and lingering neutral-to-weak La Niña influences early in the year. New monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities as the event evolves.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$74,134Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability for May–July 2026 and WMO models showing rapid sea-surface temperature rise toward +1.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region, is the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range. This developing warm phase overlays the long-term anthropogenic trend, producing near-global above-normal land temperatures in multi-model forecasts while May remains within the seasonal window before peak El Niño amplification. Recent April 2026 observations of 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 baseline and 2025 annual averages near 1.19°C provide the reference trajectory, tempered by the spring predictability barrier and lingering neutral-to-weak La Niña influences early in the year. New monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities as the event evolves.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$74,134Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability for May–July 2026 and WMO models showing rapid sea-surface temperature rise toward +1.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region, is the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C range. This developing warm phase overlays the long-term anthropogenic trend, producing near-global above-normal land temperatures in multi-model forecasts while May remains within the seasonal window before peak El Niño amplification. Recent April 2026 observations of 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 baseline and 2025 annual averages near 1.19°C provide the reference trajectory, tempered by the spring predictability barrier and lingering neutral-to-weak La Niña influences early in the year. New monthly updates from NOAA and Copernicus will refine these probabilities as the event evolves.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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