Recent NOAA and NASA analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months consistently ranging from 1.12°C to 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, reflecting the established long-term warming trend of roughly 0.18–0.20°C per decade and lingering influences from the 2023–2024 El Niño. Traders assign 96.8% implied probability to the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May 2026 because current observational data, sea-surface temperature patterns, and model consensus align closely with this narrow interval. A strong La Niña transition or significant downward revision in final May measurements could shift outcomes lower, though such rapid changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent readings and ongoing Earth energy imbalance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 96.8%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$191,215 Vol.
$191,215 Vol.
10 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 96.8%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$191,215 Vol.
$191,215 Vol.
10 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,938 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,154 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$36,602 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$22,961 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,284 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,277 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent NOAA and NASA analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months consistently ranging from 1.12°C to 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, reflecting the established long-term warming trend of roughly 0.18–0.20°C per decade and lingering influences from the 2023–2024 El Niño. Traders assign 96.8% implied probability to the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May 2026 because current observational data, sea-surface temperature patterns, and model consensus align closely with this narrow interval. A strong La Niña transition or significant downward revision in final May measurements could shift outcomes lower, though such rapid changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent readings and ongoing Earth energy imbalance.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$191,215Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent NOAA and NASA analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months consistently ranging from 1.12°C to 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, reflecting the established long-term warming trend of roughly 0.18–0.20°C per decade and lingering influences from the 2023–2024 El Niño. Traders assign 96.8% implied probability to the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May 2026 because current observational data, sea-surface temperature patterns, and model consensus align closely with this narrow interval. A strong La Niña transition or significant downward revision in final May measurements could shift outcomes lower, though such rapid changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent readings and ongoing Earth energy imbalance.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$191,215Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA and NASA analyses show global surface temperature anomalies for early 2026 months consistently ranging from 1.12°C to 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, reflecting the established long-term warming trend of roughly 0.18–0.20°C per decade and lingering influences from the 2023–2024 El Niño. Traders assign 96.8% implied probability to the 1.10–1.14°C bin for May 2026 because current observational data, sea-surface temperature patterns, and model consensus align closely with this narrow interval. A strong La Niña transition or significant downward revision in final May measurements could shift outcomes lower, though such rapid changes remain unlikely given the stability of recent readings and ongoing Earth energy imbalance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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