Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global land-ocean temperature record, driven by the relentless upward trend in baseline temperatures amid human-induced warming and forecasts of an emerging El Niño. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data, with anomalies of 1.12°C and 1.18°C above the 20th-century average—restrained by lingering La Niña conditions—but a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-May (55% NOAA chance), followed by 50-62% odds of El Niño by June-August across models. This phase shift historically boosts global temperatures by 0.5-1°C, positioning peak summer months like July to challenge records set in 2023-2024 El Niño peaks. Uncertainty persists in model consensus, with upcoming monthly bulletins from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth key to tracking deviations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUn mois de 2026 sera-t-il le plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Un mois de 2026 sera-t-il le plus chaud jamais enregistré ?
Oui
$105,295 Vol.
$105,295 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
Oui
$105,295 Vol.
$105,295 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global land-ocean temperature record, driven by the relentless upward trend in baseline temperatures amid human-induced warming and forecasts of an emerging El Niño. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data, with anomalies of 1.12°C and 1.18°C above the 20th-century average—restrained by lingering La Niña conditions—but a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-May (55% NOAA chance), followed by 50-62% odds of El Niño by June-August across models. This phase shift historically boosts global temperatures by 0.5-1°C, positioning peak summer months like July to challenge records set in 2023-2024 El Niño peaks. Uncertainty persists in model consensus, with upcoming monthly bulletins from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth key to tracking deviations.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$105,295Date de fin
Jan 10, 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global land-ocean temperature record, driven by the relentless upward trend in baseline temperatures amid human-induced warming and forecasts of an emerging El Niño. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data, with anomalies of 1.12°C and 1.18°C above the 20th-century average—restrained by lingering La Niña conditions—but a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-May (55% NOAA chance), followed by 50-62% odds of El Niño by June-August across models. This phase shift historically boosts global temperatures by 0.5-1°C, positioning peak summer months like July to challenge records set in 2023-2024 El Niño peaks. Uncertainty persists in model consensus, with upcoming monthly bulletins from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth key to tracking deviations.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$105,295Date de fin
Jan 10, 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability for at least one 2026 month surpassing the current global land-ocean temperature record, driven by the relentless upward trend in baseline temperatures amid human-induced warming and forecasts of an emerging El Niño. January and February 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 data, with anomalies of 1.12°C and 1.18°C above the 20th-century average—restrained by lingering La Niña conditions—but a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April-May (55% NOAA chance), followed by 50-62% odds of El Niño by June-August across models. This phase shift historically boosts global temperatures by 0.5-1°C, positioning peak summer months like July to challenge records set in 2023-2024 El Niño peaks. Uncertainty persists in model consensus, with upcoming monthly bulletins from NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth key to tracking deviations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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