Recent ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models peg Chicago's March 27 high temperature at 40-43°F, driving trader consensus toward those bins at over 40% combined implied probability, amid a tight race with 44-45°F (18.5%) and colder outliers like 33°F or below (17.4%). A lingering upper-level trough over the Midwest suppresses highs below seasonal norms (historical March 27 average ~45°F at O'Hare), while subtle differences in simulated boundary layer mixing and cloud cover differentiate warmer projections—ECMWF leans slightly higher via better ridging forecasts—against GFS cooler biases. NWS official guidance clusters around 42°F under mostly sunny skies, but shortwave perturbations introduce volatility, keeping 48°F+ tails slim at 12.5% total. Traders eye today's 18Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 27?
40-41°F 21%
42-43°F 21%
44-45°F 20%
38-39°F 11%
33°F or below
16%
34-35°F
4%
36-37°F
13%
38-39°F
19%
40-41°F
21%
42-43°F
21%
44-45°F
13%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
12%
52°F or higher
18%
40-41°F 21%
42-43°F 21%
44-45°F 20%
38-39°F 11%
33°F or below
16%
34-35°F
4%
36-37°F
13%
38-39°F
19%
40-41°F
21%
42-43°F
21%
44-45°F
13%
46-47°F
10%
48-49°F
15%
50-51°F
12%
52°F or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models peg Chicago's March 27 high temperature at 40-43°F, driving trader consensus toward those bins at over 40% combined implied probability, amid a tight race with 44-45°F (18.5%) and colder outliers like 33°F or below (17.4%). A lingering upper-level trough over the Midwest suppresses highs below seasonal norms (historical March 27 average ~45°F at O'Hare), while subtle differences in simulated boundary layer mixing and cloud cover differentiate warmer projections—ECMWF leans slightly higher via better ridging forecasts—against GFS cooler biases. NWS official guidance clusters around 42°F under mostly sunny skies, but shortwave perturbations introduce volatility, keeping 48°F+ tails slim at 12.5% total. Traders eye today's 18Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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