Trader consensus favors 82-85°F highs in Miami on March 23, with 30.5% implied odds for 82-83°F and 20.5% for 84-85°F, driven by NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting a ridge of high pressure ushering warm southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Historical March 23 averages hover around 80°F, but above-normal sea surface temperatures and minimal frontal interference boost warmth potential. Key variables include diurnal sea-breeze enhancement peaking afternoon highs, cloud cover from possible cumulus towers capping at 86°F (5.1% odds), or unexpected shear lines cooling to 78-81°F (35.5% combined). High uncertainty stems from 12-24 hour model spread, with NWS Miami updates pivotal before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Miami le 23 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Miami le 23 mars ?
82-83 °F 31%
80-81 °F 22%
84-85 °F 21%
78-79°F 16%
$11,815 Vol.
$11,815 Vol.
71°F ou moins
1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75 °F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
16%
80-81 °F
22%
82-83 °F
31%
84-85 °F
21%
30-31°C
5%
88-89°F
2%
90°F ou plus
1%
82-83 °F 31%
80-81 °F 22%
84-85 °F 21%
78-79°F 16%
$11,815 Vol.
$11,815 Vol.
71°F ou moins
1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75 °F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
16%
80-81 °F
22%
82-83 °F
31%
84-85 °F
21%
30-31°C
5%
88-89°F
2%
90°F ou plus
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 82-85°F highs in Miami on March 23, with 30.5% implied odds for 82-83°F and 20.5% for 84-85°F, driven by NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting a ridge of high pressure ushering warm southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Historical March 23 averages hover around 80°F, but above-normal sea surface temperatures and minimal frontal interference boost warmth potential. Key variables include diurnal sea-breeze enhancement peaking afternoon highs, cloud cover from possible cumulus towers capping at 86°F (5.1% odds), or unexpected shear lines cooling to 78-81°F (35.5% combined). High uncertainty stems from 12-24 hour model spread, with NWS Miami updates pivotal before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes