Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Miami's highest temperature on March 24 falling in the 82-85°F range, with 82-83°F leading at 32% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 83°F under high-pressure ridging and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures near 78°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, differentiating the closely matched leaders: 82-83°F reflects baseline advection of humid tropical air, while 84-85°F (25.5%) accounts for potential subsidence warming absent stronger sea breezes. Cooler 80-81°F odds (13.5%) hinge on enhanced onshore flow, against historical late-March averages of 79°F and low extremes risk amid neutral ENSO conditions. Upcoming 18Z model updates could shift these tight odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
84-85°F 33%
82-83°F 32%
80-81°F 14%
86-87°F 10%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 33%
82-83°F 32%
80-81°F 14%
86-87°F 10%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Miami's highest temperature on March 24 falling in the 82-85°F range, with 82-83°F leading at 32% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 83°F under high-pressure ridging and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures near 78°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, differentiating the closely matched leaders: 82-83°F reflects baseline advection of humid tropical air, while 84-85°F (25.5%) accounts for potential subsidence warming absent stronger sea breezes. Cooler 80-81°F odds (13.5%) hinge on enhanced onshore flow, against historical late-March averages of 79°F and low extremes risk amid neutral ENSO conditions. Upcoming 18Z model updates could shift these tight odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes