Latest NOAA forecast ensembles and GFS model runs project Dallas highs on March 23 around 80-84°F, fueling the razor-thin trader split between 80-81°F (27.5% implied odds) and 84°F+ (26.0%), with 82-83°F at 18.5%. A potent upper-level ridge and persistent southerly flow from the Gulf are advecting warm, moist air, boosting potential for afternoon convective heating, while low soil moisture from recent dry spells enhances boundary layer warming. Ensemble spread reflects uncertainty in cloud timing—persistent haze or isolated thunderstorms could cap peaks at 80-81°F, versus clearer skies pushing 84°F+ amid historical March volatility where daily highs often exceed 80°F by 20-30% in ridge setups. Traders eye the 00Z model update for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Dallas on March 23?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 23?
84°F or higher 23%
80-81°F 21%
82-83°F 19%
78-79°F 13.3%
$20,463 Vol.
$20,463 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
19%
84°F or higher
22%
84°F or higher 23%
80-81°F 21%
82-83°F 19%
78-79°F 13.3%
$20,463 Vol.
$20,463 Vol.
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
19%
84°F or higher
22%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA forecast ensembles and GFS model runs project Dallas highs on March 23 around 80-84°F, fueling the razor-thin trader split between 80-81°F (27.5% implied odds) and 84°F+ (26.0%), with 82-83°F at 18.5%. A potent upper-level ridge and persistent southerly flow from the Gulf are advecting warm, moist air, boosting potential for afternoon convective heating, while low soil moisture from recent dry spells enhances boundary layer warming. Ensemble spread reflects uncertainty in cloud timing—persistent haze or isolated thunderstorms could cap peaks at 80-81°F, versus clearer skies pushing 84°F+ amid historical March volatility where daily highs often exceed 80°F by 20-30% in ridge setups. Traders eye the 00Z model update for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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