Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 (46% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service forecast calling for a brisk 48-52°F peak under partly cloudy skies and lingering northerly winds from a recent cool frontal passage. Major models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, updated in recent 00Z runs, converge on 50-53°F amid a deep upper-level trough fostering below-normal late-March temperatures—historically averaging 52°F at Central Park. Low odds for warmer outcomes reflect slim upside risk from weak ridging, with traders watching 12Z model refreshes for any diurnal heating boosts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on March 23?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 23?
51°F or below 47%
52-53°F 28%
54-55°F 16%
56-57°F 8%
$17,160 Vol.
$17,160 Vol.
51°F or below
47%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70°F or higher
<1%
51°F or below 47%
52-53°F 28%
54-55°F 16%
56-57°F 8%
$17,160 Vol.
$17,160 Vol.
51°F or below
47%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
2%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 (46% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service forecast calling for a brisk 48-52°F peak under partly cloudy skies and lingering northerly winds from a recent cool frontal passage. Major models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles, updated in recent 00Z runs, converge on 50-53°F amid a deep upper-level trough fostering below-normal late-March temperatures—historically averaging 52°F at Central Park. Low odds for warmer outcomes reflect slim upside risk from weak ridging, with traders watching 12Z model refreshes for any diurnal heating boosts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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