Trader sentiment for Austin's highest temperature on March 27 clusters tightly around mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit, driven primarily by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble runs projecting peaks of 84-89°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. This high-pressure system fosters subsidence warming and mostly sunny skies, boosting highs well above the March climatological average of 78°F. Differentiating factors include model spread—ECMWF leans warmer and drier (favoring 88-89°F), while GFS shows slight cooling from northerly breezes (tilting toward 84-85°F)—compounded by low soil moisture reducing evaporative cooling. Historical precedents from similar ridge setups support 86-87°F as a median outcome, explaining the razor-thin market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on March 27?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?
84-85°F 20%
88-89°F 18%
86-87°F 16%
94°F or higher 11%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
11%
94°F or higher
11%
84-85°F 20%
88-89°F 18%
86-87°F 16%
94°F or higher 11%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
11%
94°F or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Austin's highest temperature on March 27 clusters tightly around mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit, driven primarily by the latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and ECMWF ensemble runs projecting peaks of 84-89°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. This high-pressure system fosters subsidence warming and mostly sunny skies, boosting highs well above the March climatological average of 78°F. Differentiating factors include model spread—ECMWF leans warmer and drier (favoring 88-89°F), while GFS shows slight cooling from northerly breezes (tilting toward 84-85°F)—compounded by low soil moisture reducing evaporative cooling. Historical precedents from similar ridge setups support 86-87°F as a median outcome, explaining the razor-thin market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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