Trader consensus tilts toward 22°C or higher in Wuhan on March 28 at 34% implied probability, propelled by recent ECMWF and GFS model updates forecasting southerly winds and highs in the low 20s amid persistent spring warmth anomalies. Yet high uncertainty—evident in the spread across 21°C (22%) to cooler outcomes—stems from model divergences, potential northern cold fronts, variable cloud cover, and urban heat effects. Historical late-March highs average 17-19°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but mild El Niño influences elevate upside risks. Key watches: CMA bulletins and Himawari satellite moisture plumes for precipitation threats that could cap peaks at 18-20°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 28?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 28?
22°C or higher 34%
21°C 22%
20°C 20%
18°C 16%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
9%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
16%
18°C
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
20%
21°C
22%
22°C or higher
34%
22°C or higher 34%
21°C 22%
20°C 20%
18°C 16%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
9%
15°C
7%
16°C
14%
17°C
16%
18°C
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
20%
21°C
22%
22°C or higher
34%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward 22°C or higher in Wuhan on March 28 at 34% implied probability, propelled by recent ECMWF and GFS model updates forecasting southerly winds and highs in the low 20s amid persistent spring warmth anomalies. Yet high uncertainty—evident in the spread across 21°C (22%) to cooler outcomes—stems from model divergences, potential northern cold fronts, variable cloud cover, and urban heat effects. Historical late-March highs average 17-19°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but mild El Niño influences elevate upside risks. Key watches: CMA bulletins and Himawari satellite moisture plumes for precipitation threats that could cap peaks at 18-20°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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