Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Shenzhen high of 26-27°C on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 26.5-27.2°C amid persistent high-pressure ridging and light winds favoring daytime heating. Historical March 28 highs average 25.1°C at Shenzhen Bao'an Airport, but this year's warmer baseline—boosted by lingering El Niño influences—has elevated expectations, with recent observations showing 25-26°C norms in preceding days. Differentiation among top outcomes hinges on afternoon sea breeze intensity: stronger onshore flows could cap temperatures at 25-26°C by enhancing evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes permit 27°C spikes via urban heat island amplification in the humid subtropical climate. Upcoming hourly updates from the China Meteorological Administration will be pivotal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
27°C 26%
26°C 25%
25°C 21%
24°C 18%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
7%
23°C
16%
24°C
18%
25°C
21%
26°C
25%
27°C
26%
28°C
18%
29°C or higher
7%
27°C 26%
26°C 25%
25°C 21%
24°C 18%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
7%
22°C
7%
23°C
16%
24°C
18%
25°C
21%
26°C
25%
27°C
26%
28°C
18%
29°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Shenzhen high of 26-27°C on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 26.5-27.2°C amid persistent high-pressure ridging and light winds favoring daytime heating. Historical March 28 highs average 25.1°C at Shenzhen Bao'an Airport, but this year's warmer baseline—boosted by lingering El Niño influences—has elevated expectations, with recent observations showing 25-26°C norms in preceding days. Differentiation among top outcomes hinges on afternoon sea breeze intensity: stronger onshore flows could cap temperatures at 25-26°C by enhancing evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes permit 27°C spikes via urban heat island amplification in the humid subtropical climate. Upcoming hourly updates from the China Meteorological Administration will be pivotal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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