Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently drive trader sentiment toward a Shenzhen high of 27°C on March 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 26-30°C reflecting a model spread of about 2-3°C amid forecast uncertainties. Recent runs indicate partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity from the South China Sea, and weak sea breezes limiting convective heating, favoring the 27°C peak over hotter 29-30°C outcomes that would require stronger solar insolation or downslope winds. Cooler 26°C odds hinge on increased cloud cover from lingering frontal remnants, while historical March 27 highs averaging 25-26°C provide baseline context, tempered by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect adding 1-2°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
27°C 26%
29°C 21%
26°C 20%
30°C 18%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
9%
24°C
11%
25°C
11%
26°C
20%
27°C
26%
28°C
15%
29°C
21%
30°C
18%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 26%
29°C 21%
26°C 20%
30°C 18%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
9%
24°C
11%
25°C
11%
26°C
20%
27°C
26%
28°C
15%
29°C
21%
30°C
18%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles currently drive trader sentiment toward a Shenzhen high of 27°C on March 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 26-30°C reflecting a model spread of about 2-3°C amid forecast uncertainties. Recent runs indicate partly cloudy skies, moderate humidity from the South China Sea, and weak sea breezes limiting convective heating, favoring the 27°C peak over hotter 29-30°C outcomes that would require stronger solar insolation or downslope winds. Cooler 26°C odds hinge on increased cloud cover from lingering frontal remnants, while historical March 27 highs averaging 25-26°C provide baseline context, tempered by Shenzhen's urban heat island effect adding 1-2°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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