Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 3°C or higher in Toronto on March 27 at 72.5% implied probability, driven by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild conditions with highs around 4-6°C under a ridge of high pressure bringing southerly flows. Current upper-air patterns show warming aloft after recent cold snaps, aligning with seasonal climatology where late-March averages hover near 5°C but vary ±5°C due to Lake Ontario moderation. Short-range GFS updates reinforce this, with minimal snow risk and diurnal maxes peaking mid-afternoon; traders eye hourly observations from Pearson Airport for resolution, tempering bets on subzero outliers amid low model spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Toronto on March 27?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 27?
3°C or higher 71%
2°C 13%
0°C 4.0%
1°C 3.5%
-7°C or below
1%
-6°C
2%
-5°C
2%
-4°C
2%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
6%
-1°C
7%
0°C
4%
1°C
4%
2°C
13%
3°C or higher
71%
3°C or higher 71%
2°C 13%
0°C 4.0%
1°C 3.5%
-7°C or below
1%
-6°C
2%
-5°C
2%
-4°C
2%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
6%
-1°C
7%
0°C
4%
1°C
4%
2°C
13%
3°C or higher
71%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 3°C or higher in Toronto on March 27 at 72.5% implied probability, driven by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild conditions with highs around 4-6°C under a ridge of high pressure bringing southerly flows. Current upper-air patterns show warming aloft after recent cold snaps, aligning with seasonal climatology where late-March averages hover near 5°C but vary ±5°C due to Lake Ontario moderation. Short-range GFS updates reinforce this, with minimal snow risk and diurnal maxes peaking mid-afternoon; traders eye hourly observations from Pearson Airport for resolution, tempering bets on subzero outliers amid low model spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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