Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 76-79°F (56% combined implied probability) for Dallas's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance indicating upper-70s peaks under southerly flow and ridging aloft. Recent 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs cluster around 77°F, a slight uptick from yesterday's cooler biases amid clearing skies post-frontal passage, while ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness or earlier wind shifts differentiating 74-75°F (19%) from 80°F+ (21%). Climatological March 27 norms hover near 73°F, but current jet stream positioning supports above-average warmth; traders eye 12Z model updates and NWS discussions this afternoon for resolution cues ahead of the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
76-77°F 25%
78-79°F 23%
74-75°F 19%
80-81°F 14%
$36,993 Vol.
$36,993 Vol.
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
76-77°F 25%
78-79°F 23%
74-75°F 19%
80-81°F 14%
$36,993 Vol.
$36,993 Vol.
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 76-79°F (56% combined implied probability) for Dallas's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast guidance indicating upper-70s peaks under southerly flow and ridging aloft. Recent 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs cluster around 77°F, a slight uptick from yesterday's cooler biases amid clearing skies post-frontal passage, while ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential afternoon cloudiness or earlier wind shifts differentiating 74-75°F (19%) from 80°F+ (21%). Climatological March 27 norms hover near 73°F, but current jet stream positioning supports above-average warmth; traders eye 12Z model updates and NWS discussions this afternoon for resolution cues ahead of the event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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