The latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and ECMWF ensemble forecasts anchor trader sentiment for Chicago's March 23 high temperature, converging on mid-40s peaks that elevate 42-43°F (28% implied probability) and 44-45°F (25%) as frontrunners amid a tight race. A recent cold front's exit has ushered high pressure and ample sunshine, fueling daytime heating from near-freezing morning lows, with O'Hare observations showing steady diurnal recovery. Key differentiators include model spreads on afternoon cloudiness and southerly winds—ECMWF leaning 46°F via stronger mixing, GFS nearer 43°F with cooler boundary layer persistence—against March climatological norms of 45°F highs and high interannual variability from Lake Michigan moderation. Upcoming 12z model runs could sharpen resolution odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Chicago le 23 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Chicago le 23 mars ?
42-43 °F 25%
44-45°F 25%
40-41 °F 16%
46-47 °F 15.9%
$16,696 Vol.
$16,696 Vol.
35°F ou moins
1%
36-37 °F
4%
38-39 °F
8%
40-41 °F
16%
42-43 °F
25%
44-45°F
25%
46-47 °F
16%
48-49°F
5%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
1%
54°F ou plus
1%
42-43 °F 25%
44-45°F 25%
40-41 °F 16%
46-47 °F 15.9%
$16,696 Vol.
$16,696 Vol.
35°F ou moins
1%
36-37 °F
4%
38-39 °F
8%
40-41 °F
16%
42-43 °F
25%
44-45°F
25%
46-47 °F
16%
48-49°F
5%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
1%
54°F ou plus
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and ECMWF ensemble forecasts anchor trader sentiment for Chicago's March 23 high temperature, converging on mid-40s peaks that elevate 42-43°F (28% implied probability) and 44-45°F (25%) as frontrunners amid a tight race. A recent cold front's exit has ushered high pressure and ample sunshine, fueling daytime heating from near-freezing morning lows, with O'Hare observations showing steady diurnal recovery. Key differentiators include model spreads on afternoon cloudiness and southerly winds—ECMWF leaning 46°F via stronger mixing, GFS nearer 43°F with cooler boundary layer persistence—against March climatological norms of 45°F highs and high interannual variability from Lake Michigan moderation. Upcoming 12z model runs could sharpen resolution odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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