Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 31°C high in Sao Paulo on March 28 at 28.5% implied probability, with 30°C (21.5%) and 29°C (18.5%) close behind, mirroring divergent ensemble forecast models amid persistent subtropical high pressure fostering warm, dry conditions. Recent INMET data logs daytime peaks around 30°C over the past week, but GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze penetration, potentially capping temperatures at 29°C or allowing urban heat island amplification to 31-32°C. Historical March averages hover near 29°C, underscoring model sensitivity to moisture advection; new 00Z forecasts expected within hours could sharpen differentiation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
31°C 28%
30°C 22%
29°C 19%
32°C 11%
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
19%
30°C
22%
31°C
28%
32°C
11%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
31°C 28%
30°C 22%
29°C 19%
32°C 11%
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
9%
29°C
19%
30°C
22%
31°C
28%
32°C
11%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 31°C high in Sao Paulo on March 28 at 28.5% implied probability, with 30°C (21.5%) and 29°C (18.5%) close behind, mirroring divergent ensemble forecast models amid persistent subtropical high pressure fostering warm, dry conditions. Recent INMET data logs daytime peaks around 30°C over the past week, but GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze penetration, potentially capping temperatures at 29°C or allowing urban heat island amplification to 31-32°C. Historical March averages hover near 29°C, underscoring model sensitivity to moisture advection; new 00Z forecasts expected within hours could sharpen differentiation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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