Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 17°C (27.5%) and 18°C (23.5%) for Milan on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima in the 16-19°C range amid mild southerly flow and high pressure building over the Mediterranean. ARPA Lombardia's high-resolution models align closely, showing mean predictions near 17.5°C with low cloud cover enhancing solar heating in the Po Valley. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing and potential overnight cold air drainage, which could shave 1-2°C off peaks per historical March precedents (climatological high ~14°C, but recent warm anomalies boost upper-end odds). Upcoming 00Z model runs may refine these market-implied odds as uncertainty narrows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Milan on March 28?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 28?
17°C 27%
18°C 24%
16°C 20%
19°C 19%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
10%
14°C
12%
15°C
15%
16°C
20%
17°C
27%
18°C
24%
19°C
19%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
7%
17°C 27%
18°C 24%
16°C 20%
19°C 19%
11°C or below
2%
12°C
2%
13°C
10%
14°C
12%
15°C
15%
16°C
20%
17°C
27%
18°C
24%
19°C
19%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 17°C (27.5%) and 18°C (23.5%) for Milan on March 28, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima in the 16-19°C range amid mild southerly flow and high pressure building over the Mediterranean. ARPA Lombardia's high-resolution models align closely, showing mean predictions near 17.5°C with low cloud cover enhancing solar heating in the Po Valley. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing and potential overnight cold air drainage, which could shave 1-2°C off peaks per historical March precedents (climatological high ~14°C, but recent warm anomalies boost upper-end odds). Upcoming 00Z model runs may refine these market-implied odds as uncertainty narrows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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