Trader consensus on Polymarket shows balanced sentiment across flu hospitalization rate bins for week 12, 2026 (late March), with each outcome—<75, 75–80, 80–85, 85–90, 90–95, 95+—implied at 49.5%, reflecting deep scientific uncertainty over two flu seasons ahead. Historical CDC data reveals wide interannual variability in cumulative rates per 100,000 population by week 12, ranging 5–15 depending on severity, driven by dominant strains like more virulent H3N2 versus milder H1N1, vaccine strain mismatch (efficacy often 40–60%), national vaccination coverage (~45–52%), and waning population immunity. Absent 2025–26 surveillance or WHO vaccine recommendations (expected early 2026), early 2024–25 low flu activity provides minimal signal, leaving key tipping points like viral evolution and transmission dynamics unresolved.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
85–90 50%
80–85 50%
90–95 49%
75–80 48%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
38%
75–80
48%
80–85
50%
85–90
50%
90–95
49%
95+
39%
85–90 50%
80–85 50%
90–95 49%
75–80 48%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
$0 Vol.
38%
75–80
$0 Vol.
48%
80–85
$0 Vol.
50%
85–90
$0 Vol.
50%
90–95
$0 Vol.
49%
95+
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows balanced sentiment across flu hospitalization rate bins for week 12, 2026 (late March), with each outcome—<75, 75–80, 80–85, 85–90, 90–95, 95+—implied at 49.5%, reflecting deep scientific uncertainty over two flu seasons ahead. Historical CDC data reveals wide interannual variability in cumulative rates per 100,000 population by week 12, ranging 5–15 depending on severity, driven by dominant strains like more virulent H3N2 versus milder H1N1, vaccine strain mismatch (efficacy often 40–60%), national vaccination coverage (~45–52%), and waning population immunity. Absent 2025–26 surveillance or WHO vaccine recommendations (expected early 2026), early 2024–25 low flu activity provides minimal signal, leaving key tipping points like viral evolution and transmission dynamics unresolved.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Apr 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket shows balanced sentiment across flu hospitalization rate bins for week 12, 2026 (late March), with each outcome—<75, 75–80, 80–85, 85–90, 90–95, 95+—implied at 49.5%, reflecting deep scientific uncertainty over two flu seasons ahead. Historical CDC data reveals wide interannual variability in cumulative rates per 100,000 population by week 12, ranging 5–15 depending on severity, driven by dominant strains like more virulent H3N2 versus milder H1N1, vaccine strain mismatch (efficacy often 40–60%), national vaccination coverage (~45–52%), and waning population immunity. Absent 2025–26 surveillance or WHO vaccine recommendations (expected early 2026), early 2024–25 low flu activity provides minimal signal, leaving key tipping points like viral evolution and transmission dynamics unresolved.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Apr 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows balanced sentiment across flu hospitalization rate bins for week 12, 2026 (late March), with each outcome—<75, 75–80, 80–85, 85–90, 90–95, 95+—implied at 49.5%, reflecting deep scientific uncertainty over two flu seasons ahead. Historical CDC data reveals wide interannual variability in cumulative rates per 100,000 population by week 12, ranging 5–15 depending on severity, driven by dominant strains like more virulent H3N2 versus milder H1N1, vaccine strain mismatch (efficacy often 40–60%), national vaccination coverage (~45–52%), and waning population immunity. Absent 2025–26 surveillance or WHO vaccine recommendations (expected early 2026), early 2024–25 low flu activity provides minimal signal, leaving key tipping points like viral evolution and transmission dynamics unresolved.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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