Traders overwhelmingly price an 80–90 flu hospitalizations per 100,000 population rate for Week 11 (late February) 2026 at 96.3%, mirroring the mild 2024–25 season's trajectory per CDC surveillance data, where weekly rates have hovered below 20 per 100,000 amid declining activity and strong vaccine match to dominant H1N1 strains. Historical baselines show Week 11 peaks averaging 70–90 in low-severity years like 2019–20 and 2022–23, bolstered by high vaccination coverage and no novel variants. This positioning could shift if a mismatched strain emerges, immunity wanes post-mild seasons, or unseasonal surges occur ahead of forecast models from CDC's FluView, though current trends favor stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
80–90 96.1%
90–100 4.3%
70–80 4.2%
60–70 3.1%
<60
2%
60–70
3%
70–80
4%
80–90
96%
90–100
4%
100+
2%
80–90 96.1%
90–100 4.3%
70–80 4.2%
60–70 3.1%
<60
2%
60–70
3%
70–80
4%
80–90
96%
90–100
4%
100+
2%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly price an 80–90 flu hospitalizations per 100,000 population rate for Week 11 (late February) 2026 at 96.3%, mirroring the mild 2024–25 season's trajectory per CDC surveillance data, where weekly rates have hovered below 20 per 100,000 amid declining activity and strong vaccine match to dominant H1N1 strains. Historical baselines show Week 11 peaks averaging 70–90 in low-severity years like 2019–20 and 2022–23, bolstered by high vaccination coverage and no novel variants. This positioning could shift if a mismatched strain emerges, immunity wanes post-mild seasons, or unseasonal surges occur ahead of forecast models from CDC's FluView, though current trends favor stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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