Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no major solar storm—a G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) scale—by April 30, driven by the latest SWPC 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through late April amid Solar Cycle 25's declining phase. Recent observations show a quiet Sun with minimal sunspot activity and no complex active regions capable of producing Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for severe storms; prior events peaked at G2-G3 levels from corotating high-speed streams. Current G2 watches for April 17-18 stem from non-CME effects unlikely to escalate. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen X-class flare from a rapidly rotating new sunspot group, though model consensus deems this improbable. Watch daily SWPC updates for evolving 3-day geomagnetic forecasts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempête solaire majeure d'ici le 30 avril ?
Tempête solaire majeure d'ici le 30 avril ?
Oui
$12,480 Vol.
$12,480 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
Oui
$12,480 Vol.
$12,480 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no major solar storm—a G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) scale—by April 30, driven by the latest SWPC 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through late April amid Solar Cycle 25's declining phase. Recent observations show a quiet Sun with minimal sunspot activity and no complex active regions capable of producing Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for severe storms; prior events peaked at G2-G3 levels from corotating high-speed streams. Current G2 watches for April 17-18 stem from non-CME effects unlikely to escalate. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen X-class flare from a rapidly rotating new sunspot group, though model consensus deems this improbable. Watch daily SWPC updates for evolving 3-day geomagnetic forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$12,480Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no major solar storm—a G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) scale—by April 30, driven by the latest SWPC 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through late April amid Solar Cycle 25's declining phase. Recent observations show a quiet Sun with minimal sunspot activity and no complex active regions capable of producing Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for severe storms; prior events peaked at G2-G3 levels from corotating high-speed streams. Current G2 watches for April 17-18 stem from non-CME effects unlikely to escalate. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen X-class flare from a rapidly rotating new sunspot group, though model consensus deems this improbable. Watch daily SWPC updates for evolving 3-day geomagnetic forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$12,480Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.5% implied probability to no major solar storm—a G4 (severe, Kp=8) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) scale—by April 30, driven by the latest SWPC 27-day outlook forecasting low solar activity through late April amid Solar Cycle 25's declining phase. Recent observations show a quiet Sun with minimal sunspot activity and no complex active regions capable of producing Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for severe storms; prior events peaked at G2-G3 levels from corotating high-speed streams. Current G2 watches for April 17-18 stem from non-CME effects unlikely to escalate. Realistic shifts would require an unforeseen X-class flare from a rapidly rotating new sunspot group, though model consensus deems this improbable. Watch daily SWPC updates for evolving 3-day geomagnetic forecasts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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