NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Mars 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
1,25–1,29ºC 100.0%
<1,10ºC <1%
1,10–1,14ºC <1%
1,15–1,19ºC <1%
$431,721 Vol.
$431,721 Vol.
10 avr. 2026
<1,10ºC
Non
1,10–1,14ºC
Non
1,15–1,19ºC
Non
1,20–1,24ºC
Non
1,25–1,29ºC
Oui
>1,29ºC
Non
1,25–1,29ºC 100.0%
<1,10ºC <1%
1,10–1,14ºC <1%
1,15–1,19ºC <1%
$431,721 Vol.
$431,721 Vol.
10 avr. 2026
<1,10ºC
$60,531 Vol.
Non
1,10–1,14ºC
$54,323 Vol.
Non
1,15–1,19ºC
$84,918 Vol.
Non
1,20–1,24ºC
$67,818 Vol.
Non
1,25–1,29ºC
$61,129 Vol.
Oui
>1,29ºC
$103,001 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$431,721Date de fin
10 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$431,721Date de fin
10 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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