Persistent delays to SpaceX's first Starship Flight 12—the inaugural 2026 test of Version 3 hardware featuring an upgraded Super Heavy booster—have anchored trader consensus on low launch counts, with under 5 reaching space (defined as above 100 km) at 36.5% implied probability. Elon Musk's repeated timeline slips, from early March to early April amid cryogenic testing and FAA licensing reviews, underscore ongoing challenges in scaling rapid reusability despite Pad 2 activation at Starbase and Florida infrastructure progress for late-year operations. Historical 2025 cadence topped at around 11 flights, limited by anomaly investigations, fueling doubt on ambitious 25+ annual targets even as manufacturing ramps via Gigabay facility promise acceleration post-Flight 12. Key watch: regulatory approvals and ship catch attempts could unlock higher bins like 5-6 (24.5%) if cadence surges mid-year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?
<5 37%
5-6 29%
9-10 17.3%
7-8 14%
$402,544 Vol.
$402,544 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
37%
5-6
25%
7-8
14%
9-10
17%
11-12
5%
13-14
2%
15-16
1%
>16
5%
<5 37%
5-6 29%
9-10 17.3%
7-8 14%
$402,544 Vol.
$402,544 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
<5
$75,458 Vol.
37%
5-6
$82,854 Vol.
25%
7-8
$150,860 Vol.
14%
9-10
$54,940 Vol.
17%
11-12
$2,947 Vol.
5%
13-14
$3,647 Vol.
2%
15-16
$23,563 Vol.
1%
>16
$8,275 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent delays to SpaceX's first Starship Flight 12—the inaugural 2026 test of Version 3 hardware featuring an upgraded Super Heavy booster—have anchored trader consensus on low launch counts, with under 5 reaching space (defined as above 100 km) at 36.5% implied probability. Elon Musk's repeated timeline slips, from early March to early April amid cryogenic testing and FAA licensing reviews, underscore ongoing challenges in scaling rapid reusability despite Pad 2 activation at Starbase and Florida infrastructure progress for late-year operations. Historical 2025 cadence topped at around 11 flights, limited by anomaly investigations, fueling doubt on ambitious 25+ annual targets even as manufacturing ramps via Gigabay facility promise acceleration post-Flight 12. Key watch: regulatory approvals and ship catch attempts could unlock higher bins like 5-6 (24.5%) if cadence surges mid-year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$402,544Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent delays to SpaceX's first Starship Flight 12—the inaugural 2026 test of Version 3 hardware featuring an upgraded Super Heavy booster—have anchored trader consensus on low launch counts, with under 5 reaching space (defined as above 100 km) at 36.5% implied probability. Elon Musk's repeated timeline slips, from early March to early April amid cryogenic testing and FAA licensing reviews, underscore ongoing challenges in scaling rapid reusability despite Pad 2 activation at Starbase and Florida infrastructure progress for late-year operations. Historical 2025 cadence topped at around 11 flights, limited by anomaly investigations, fueling doubt on ambitious 25+ annual targets even as manufacturing ramps via Gigabay facility promise acceleration post-Flight 12. Key watch: regulatory approvals and ship catch attempts could unlock higher bins like 5-6 (24.5%) if cadence surges mid-year.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$402,544Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent delays to SpaceX's first Starship Flight 12—the inaugural 2026 test of Version 3 hardware featuring an upgraded Super Heavy booster—have anchored trader consensus on low launch counts, with under 5 reaching space (defined as above 100 km) at 36.5% implied probability. Elon Musk's repeated timeline slips, from early March to early April amid cryogenic testing and FAA licensing reviews, underscore ongoing challenges in scaling rapid reusability despite Pad 2 activation at Starbase and Florida infrastructure progress for late-year operations. Historical 2025 cadence topped at around 11 flights, limited by anomaly investigations, fueling doubt on ambitious 25+ annual targets even as manufacturing ramps via Gigabay facility promise acceleration post-Flight 12. Key watch: regulatory approvals and ship catch attempts could unlock higher bins like 5-6 (24.5%) if cadence surges mid-year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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