Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by the absence of any direct statements from Elon Musk or company filings amid ongoing speculation. Recent catalysts like the joint Terafab semiconductor facility—announced last week to support AI chip production for both firms—and Tesla's converted stake in SpaceX via the earlier xAI acquisition have fueled talk of eventual synergies in AI infrastructure, Starlink integration, and autonomous systems, but analysts like Wedbush peg a full merger at 2027 due to FTC and DOJ antitrust scrutiny. While Musk's rapid execution could surprise with accelerated timelines, no S-1 filings, IPO signals, or regulatory progress indicate near-term action, leaving room for last-minute shifts before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$133,351 Vol.
$133,351 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$133,351 Vol.
$133,351 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by the absence of any direct statements from Elon Musk or company filings amid ongoing speculation. Recent catalysts like the joint Terafab semiconductor facility—announced last week to support AI chip production for both firms—and Tesla's converted stake in SpaceX via the earlier xAI acquisition have fueled talk of eventual synergies in AI infrastructure, Starlink integration, and autonomous systems, but analysts like Wedbush peg a full merger at 2027 due to FTC and DOJ antitrust scrutiny. While Musk's rapid execution could surprise with accelerated timelines, no S-1 filings, IPO signals, or regulatory progress indicate near-term action, leaving room for last-minute shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volume
$133,351Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by the absence of any direct statements from Elon Musk or company filings amid ongoing speculation. Recent catalysts like the joint Terafab semiconductor facility—announced last week to support AI chip production for both firms—and Tesla's converted stake in SpaceX via the earlier xAI acquisition have fueled talk of eventual synergies in AI infrastructure, Starlink integration, and autonomous systems, but analysts like Wedbush peg a full merger at 2027 due to FTC and DOJ antitrust scrutiny. While Musk's rapid execution could surprise with accelerated timelines, no S-1 filings, IPO signals, or regulatory progress indicate near-term action, leaving room for last-minute shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,351Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by the absence of any direct statements from Elon Musk or company filings amid ongoing speculation. Recent catalysts like the joint Terafab semiconductor facility—announced last week to support AI chip production for both firms—and Tesla's converted stake in SpaceX via the earlier xAI acquisition have fueled talk of eventual synergies in AI infrastructure, Starlink integration, and autonomous systems, but analysts like Wedbush peg a full merger at 2027 due to FTC and DOJ antitrust scrutiny. While Musk's rapid execution could surprise with accelerated timelines, no S-1 filings, IPO signals, or regulatory progress indicate near-term action, leaving room for last-minute shifts before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes